I’ll begin with two questions:
What proportion of Americans say there is solid evidence that the earth is warming? Is it: a) one quarter; b) one third; c) a half; or d) two thirds?
What has happened to that figure over the last four years? Has it: a) fallen every year; b) stayed about the same; c) risen every year?
Judging by most conversations I have and the coverage of public views about climate change, most people would guess the answer is low and falling.
But here’s the answer, taken from the Pew Research Center’s annual polls: two thirds and rising.
Agreement in the US that the earth is warming is now higher than it’s been at any time since 2008. The research was conducted before Hurricane Sandy, so is probably higher now. Only about half say it’s because of human activities – though that has also increased by a quarter over the last three years.
The debate about public views of climate change has changed in the US over the last few months. A number of polls in the autumn showed that the public is becoming more worried – and this was covered in the media.
But the UK lags behind. This week’s Observer included a powerful editorial, restating the evidence about current and future impacts of climate change. But it spoiled it with the line: “climate change denial is becoming entrenched in the UK, or … our media have become complacent about the issue, or both.”
Everyone I speak to about climate change seems to think this. But, as I showed last year, concern about climate change in the UK is certainly not falling, and is probably increasing.
I don’t know of a single poll that shows that the UK public are currently becoming more sceptical about climate change. The general pattern is instead that there was a one-off increase in doubts around late ’09 , which has been followed by a recovery over the years since then.
This set of YouGov polls is fairly typical:
There’s a debate to be had about whether the media is becoming more doubtful of climate science, though again I suspect the opposite has been true over the last couple of years.
The narrative of rising climate scepticism has become entrenched well past its useful life. It’s time for some climate denial denial.
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A longer version of this blogpost is here.